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Peninsula in the splash zone: LBCC experts urge preparation as El Nino Kelvin waves push tides higher 

By Tobin Ortiz-McLendon

The sea wall along the Long Beach Peninsula and several homes have been affected by rising tides and swells caused by a surging Kelvin wave and an El Niño. 

In early October, the effects of an El Niño pattern along the West Coast, and its growing movement of warm water toward Southern California, could put pressure on marine ecosystems adapted to colder ocean conditions, endangering marine life.

Kim Hatch, professor of Physical Geography at Long Beach City College, said that multiple pulses of warm water, known as Kelvin waves, could reach the coast as El Niño develops. 

“This is the beginning,” Hatch said, describing the early stage of the storm conditions expected during El Niño.

The warm water brought by an El Niño pattern also disrupts the marine ecosystem along the Southern California coast. 

The region’s marine life is adapted to colder ocean conditions, making the arrival of warmer water a significant change.

“It’s disrupting sea life,” Hatch said.

Hatch explains further that as fish move away from warmer conditions, animals that depend on them for food could also be affected. 

“The seabirds, seals and sea lions may struggle to find enough food as the fish they normally eat leave the area,” Hatch said.

Hatch explained that kelp is adapted to cold ocean conditions, meaning warmer water can affect the region’s marine life in multiple ways. 

“It affects the kelp too,” Hatch said. “Kelp loves cold water.”

Workers and passersby walk along the water wrecked beach boardwalk on Long Beach Peninsula on Oct. 12. Damage was caused due to extreme weather and tide from a Pacific Ocean Kelvin wave shredding structures and causing permanent damage. (Tobin Ortiz-McLendon)

El Niño is a climate pattern that develops when ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm and atmospheric circulation changes. 

Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm surface water toward the western Pacific, and when those winds weaken, warm water can move eastward in underwater pulses called Kelvin waves.

It’s not a wave like you and I are familiar with along the beach where it’s a breaking wave on the surface. It is actually underneath the surface,” Hatch said, describing a Kelvin wave as an internal wave.

She explained that a pulse can take two to three months to cross the Pacific and can extend hundreds of feet below the surface.

The combination of El Niño pattern, Kelvin waves and more wet weather caused by warmer water could end up being the perfect storm to wipe out the houses along the historic Peninsula. 

Water wrecked beach house and boardwalk on Long Beach Peninsula on Oct. 12. High tides and powerful surf breached a seawall along the Long Beach Peninsula. (Tobin Ortiz-McLendon)

Hatch explains a situation where we had a combination of an  El Niño storm surge creating big waves along the beach, twice-a-month high tides, and the Kelvin wave adding 6 to 12 inches or more could be a dangerous weather recipe.

As El Niño continues to develop, the continued movement of warm water along the coast will create more dangerous environments for marine animals that rely on the region’s usual conditions. 

From fish to seabirds and marine mammals, the changing ocean temperatures are an important part of understanding what this unusual triple-threat could mean for Southern California.

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